Potential changes in the distribution of Delphinium bolosii and related taxa of the series Fissa from the Iberian Peninsula under future climate change scenarios

A particular threat posed by climate change for biodiversity conservation, one which has scarcely been studied, is the overlap of potential distribution areas in phylogenetically closely related species. In this study, Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to investigate changes Delphinium bolosii and D. fissum subsp. sordidum under future climatic scenarios. These two endangered endemic species from Iberian Peninsula do not have complete reproductive barriers between them. The models selected different predictors with a similar effect biological cycle. Both taxa need low winter temperatures break seed dormancy sufficient rainfall flowering fruiting stages. current both currently overlap. However, results showed that may take place species’ range predict reduction area while, conversely, increased. cases, predicted contraction very high, loss habitat suitability some localities worrying. Notwithstanding, overlaps Our findings can be define populations high priority conservation or action against impacts on these